Would a Donald Trump presidency really be so bad?
The prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency elicits a range of concerns and perspectives, reflecting both the complexities and the polarized nature of American politics. Here are some key points to consider:
Institutional Checks and Balances
Despite fears of authoritarianism or a complete erosion of democracy, the U.S. system of government is designed with robust checks and balances. As noted in 1, the federal bureaucracy cannot be easily "purged" by executive order, and valid federal legislation protects government agencies from being gutted. Additionally, Democratic control of the House or state and local governments could significantly oppose and limit Trump's initiatives.
Economic and Domestic Policies
Trump's first term saw strong economic indicators, including job growth, controlled inflation, and rising blue-collar wages. His economic record, particularly before the COVID-19 pandemic, was generally positive2. However, the effectiveness of his economic policies in a second term would depend on various factors, including global economic conditions and the response to any new crises.
International Affairs
One of the most significant concerns is Trump's impact on international affairs, where the president has fewer checks on their power. His approach to diplomacy and foreign policy could lead to instability, particularly in regions like Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East12.
Military and Law Enforcement
There are worries about Trump's potential use of the military or National Guard against his critics or to control domestic unrest. However, it is crucial to note that Trump does not control these entities until he takes office, and historical evidence suggests that the military has resisted his improper orders in the past13.
Erosion of Trust and Public Faith
A significant danger posed by a Trump presidency is the subtle erosion of trust and truth, which can undermine public faith in institutions. Trump's use of language to confuse and sow chaos, rather than to communicate coherent policies, is a persistent concern3.
Structural Limitations
Second-term presidents, including Trump, face structural limitations. They are often considered "lame ducks" from the start, as they cannot be re-elected, which typically leads to a decline in their political power over time. The Constitution also remains a strong safeguard against any attempts at autocratic rule2.
Conclusion
While a second Trump presidency would undoubtedly be contentious and potentially volatile, it is unlikely to result in the outright collapse of American democracy. The system's built-in checks and balances, along with the inherent limitations of a second term, would likely mitigate some of the more extreme fears. However, concerns about international stability, the erosion of public trust, and the potential for chaotic governance remain valid and warrant careful observation and engagement from the public and other branches of government.