Will there really be any war between India and Pakistan over the Uri attack? What will be its effects?

The scenario of a full-scale war between India and Pakistan, including over incidents like the Uri attack, is complex and fraught with significant risks. Here are some key points to consider:

Immediate Consequences of the Uri Attack

The Uri attack in 2016 led to a significant escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan. India conducted surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) in response, which Pakistan denied but led to increased military exchanges and ceasefire violations along the border25.

Risk of Escalation

While the immediate crisis was managed without escalating into a full-scale war, the potential for future conflicts remains high. The Pulwama crisis in 2019, which followed a similar pattern of terrorist attacks and military responses, brought the two nations to the brink of a major war. However, international diplomatic efforts, particularly from the United States, helped in de-escalating the situation3.

Nuclear War Scenario

In the event of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan, the consequences would be catastrophic. Studies suggest that such a conflict could result in 50-125 million immediate deaths, due to the detonation of nuclear warheads and the subsequent environmental effects such as the release of black carbon smoke, which could lead to a significant decline in surface sunlight and productivity on land and oceans14.

Environmental and Global Impact

A nuclear war would not only affect the local population but also have global implications. The release of black carbon smoke could cause a 20-35% decline in surface sunlight, a 15-30% decline in land productivity, and a 5-15% decline in ocean productivity. This would have severe and long-lasting environmental and economic consequences worldwide14.

Current Tensions and Future Risks

The ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, compounded by the presence of nuclear weapons and the volatile security situation in the region, including in Afghanistan and Kashmir, continue to pose a significant risk of escalation. The completion of India's nuclear triad and Pakistan's intentions to follow suit add to the complexity and danger of the situation1.

In summary, while a full-scale war between India and Pakistan over incidents like the Uri attack has been avoided so far through a combination of military restraint and international diplomatic efforts, the risk of such a conflict remains high. The potential consequences of a nuclear war would be devastating, both locally and globally.