Will Muslim population overcome Hindu population in India in future?

Based on the available demographic studies and projections, it is highly unlikely that the Muslim population in India will surpass the Hindu population in the foreseeable future. Here are some key points from the sources:

Demographic Projections

• Pew Research Center projections indicate that while the Muslim population in India will continue to grow, Hindus will remain the majority. By 2050, Muslims are expected to make up about 18.4% of the population, while Hindus will still constitute around 76.7%4.

Mathematical Models

• Mathematical models presented in S.Y. Quraishi's book, using both polynomial and exponential growth models, show that the Muslim population can never exceed the Hindu population due to the significant gap in their population numbers. Even with higher fertility rates among Muslims, the difference is too large to be bridged in a practical timeframe2.

Fertility Rates

• While Muslims have higher fertility rates than Hindus, these rates have been declining sharply over the years. For example, the average number of children per Muslim woman decreased from 4.4 in 1992 to 2.6 in 2015, which reduces the likelihood of Muslims overtaking Hindus24.

Expert Opinions

• Population experts and demographers agree that the scenario where Muslims surpass Hindus is not practically possible within a reasonable timeframe. Even if Hindus were to stop having children, which is an unrealistic scenario, it would still take an impractically long time for Muslims to become the majority2.

In summary, the combination of demographic projections, mathematical models, and declining fertility rates among Muslims all suggest that Hindus will continue to be the majority in India, and it is not feasible for the Muslim population to surpass them in the near or even distant future.