Why is India afraid of having referendum in Kashmir?
The issue of a referendum or plebiscite in Kashmir is complex and multifaceted, reflecting various historical, political, and strategic reasons why India might be hesitant or opposed to holding one. Here are some key points:
Historical Commitments and International Pressure
India initially agreed to a plebiscite under UN auspices in 1948 to determine the future of Kashmir, but it has since backtracked on this commitment. The UN Security Council resolutions of 1948 and 1949 called for a free and impartial plebiscite, but India has not fulfilled this obligation35.
Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity
India claims Kashmir as an integral part of its territory and fears that a plebiscite could lead to the region's secession or its merger with Pakistan. This would undermine India's sovereignty and territorial integrity, which are core concerns for the Indian government45.
Political and Strategic Considerations
India's decision to abrogate Articles 370 and 35A in 2019, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, was seen as a move to integrate the region more closely with the rest of India. Holding a plebiscite now could be seen as a reversal of this policy and might embolden separatist movements2.
Cold War and Geopolitical Context
Historically, India's leadership, including Jawaharlal Nehru, felt that the international community, particularly the United States and the UK, were sympathetic to Pakistan's position on Kashmir. This geopolitical context made India wary of international involvement in the dispute, fearing it could be detrimental to its interests2.
Domestic Politics and Public Opinion
In India, the Kashmir issue is highly emotive and politically charged. Many Indians view Kashmir as an integral part of the country, and any suggestion of a plebiscite that could lead to its separation is met with strong opposition. The ruling BJP and other nationalist parties have built significant political capital on their stance on Kashmir, making it difficult for them to agree to a plebiscite1.
Simla Accord and Subsequent Agreements
The Simla Accord of 1972 between India and Pakistan agreed to resolve differences over Kashmir through bilateral negotiations, effectively sidelining the option of a plebiscite. India has since argued that this accord and subsequent agreements have superseded the need for a plebiscite4.
In summary, India's reluctance to hold a referendum in Kashmir stems from concerns about sovereignty, territorial integrity, geopolitical implications, and domestic political considerations.