When will China become a democratic country?
The question of when China will become a democratic country is complex and subject to various interpretations and predictions. Here are some key points from the sources:
Economic and Educational Factors
Some analysts suggest that as countries become wealthier and more educated, they are more likely to transition towards democracy. This pattern is observed in many countries, but China's case is unique due to its strong authoritarian governance. Articles from the Journal of Democracy and the Hoover Institution suggest that rising levels of wealth and education could lead to increased demands for democratic reforms. For example, the Journal of Democracy article from 2007 predicted that China could become "Partly Free" by 2015 and "Free" by 2025, based on continued economic and educational growth13.
Current Political Structure
However, the current political structure in China, dominated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), shows no signs of relinquishing its monopoly on power. The CCP defines China as a "socialist democracy with Chinese characteristics," which is distinct from liberal democracy. Under Xi Jinping, the concept of "whole-process people's democracy" has been promoted, emphasizing consultation and decision-making processes that do not involve multi-party elections or liberal democratic principles24.
Recent Developments
Recent developments, such as the consolidation of Xi Jinping's power at the 20th National Congress of the CCP in 2022, indicate a strengthening of the CCP's control rather than a move towards liberal democracy. Xi Jinping has rejected notions of Western-style democracy and has instead emphasized the unique historical and social conditions of China that require a different political system24.
Conclusion
Given the current political climate and the CCP's firm grip on power, it is unlikely that China will transition to a liberal democratic system in the near future. While there may be incremental changes in personal liberties and economic freedoms, the fundamental structure of the political system is not expected to shift towards democracy as understood in Western terms. The predictions made in earlier years, such as those from the Journal of Democracy, have not materialized, and the trend suggests continued authoritarian rule under the CCP124.