What would happen if the internet shut down and how could it happen?

If the internet were to shut down, either partially or entirely, the consequences would be far-reaching and multifaceted. Here are some key impacts and potential ways it could happen:

Economic and Social Impacts

• Internet shutdowns would lead to significant economic losses, as seen in past instances where temporary shutdowns cost countries billions of dollars. For example, between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, internet shutdowns globally cost at least $2.4 billion in GDP5.
• A prolonged or permanent shutdown would force a substantial reorganization of the global economy, leading to massive unemployment and a global economic crisis. Companies heavily reliant on the internet, such as Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon, would shrink dramatically or cease to exist4.
• Shutdowns would separate people from their family, friends, and livelihoods, undermine economic growth, interfere with the startup ecosystem, and threaten social stability5.

Infrastructure and Connectivity

• Internet shutdowns can erode trust in the infrastructure, leading to reduced investment and further decline in network reliability. Users might experience reduced speeds or lose access to interconnected networks if traffic needs to be routed through less optimal paths1.
• Shutdowns affecting interconnection points or significant infrastructure components could impact connectivity and internet performance in other countries, potentially harming international relations1.

Critical Services Disruption

• Essential services such as energy and utility management, which rely on digital technologies like digital twins, would face disruptions, leading to blackouts and service interruptions2.
• Government services, transportation, healthcare, and education would all be jeopardized. The absence of internet would also disrupt critical communication systems, forcing a reliance on verbal conversations or outdated technologies like landline telephones and AM/FM radio2.
• Telecommunications services would come under acute strain and quickly fail, breaking the 24/7 news cycle and isolating communities. Air traffic control, metro systems, and suburban train networks would also fail4.

Technical Vulnerabilities

• Internet shutdowns could be the result of various technical vulnerabilities, such as network infrastructure attacks. For instance, exploits in firmware, misconfigurations, or unpatched security holes could allow attackers to gain remote access to network segments, leading to widespread disruptions. An example is the attack on the KA-SAT network where an attacker exploited a misconfiguration in a VPN appliance to render residential modems unable to access the network3.

Intentional Shutdowns

• Governments or other entities might intentionally shut down the internet within a country for various reasons, such as suppressing information, controlling public opinion, or maintaining order during times of unrest. These actions would have the same detrimental effects on the economy, social stability, and critical services as any other form of shutdown15.

In summary, an internet shutdown would have catastrophic economic, social, and infrastructural consequences, and it could occur due to a combination of technical vulnerabilities, intentional actions by governments or entities, or other unforeseen events.