What will happen if India and Pakistan gets into war and who will win?
The prospect of a war between India and Pakistan is complex and potentially catastrophic, especially considering the nuclear capabilities of both nations. Here's a breakdown of the potential outcomes and factors that could influence the conflict:
Potential Outcomes
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Conventional War: In a conventional conflict, India's military advantage could give it an upper hand. India has a larger military and more resources compared to Pakistan. However, Pakistan's strategic location and support from allies like China could complicate India's efforts.
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Nuclear War: If the conflict escalates to a nuclear war, the consequences would be devastating for both countries and the world. Estimates suggest that 50 to 125 million people could die immediately, with global environmental impacts leading to mass starvation and long-term ecological damage23.
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Global Implications: A nuclear war would not only affect India and Pakistan but also have significant global consequences, including reduced sunlight, cooling of the Earth's surface, and decreased agricultural productivity23.
Factors Influencing the Conflict
- Military Strength: India has a larger and more diverse military, which could give it an advantage in a conventional war.
- Nuclear Capabilities: Both countries have nuclear weapons, but India follows a "No First Use" policy, while Pakistan does not have such a policy4.
- International Intervention: The international community, particularly the United States and other major powers, might intervene to prevent escalation, as seen in past conflicts5.
- Geopolitical Alliances: Pakistan's alliance with China could influence the dynamics of the conflict, potentially drawing in other regional or global powers4.
Who Might Win?
Predicting a clear winner in a war between India and Pakistan is challenging due to the complexities involved:
- Conventional War: India might have an advantage due to its larger military and economic resources.
- Nuclear War: There would be no real "winner" in a nuclear conflict, as both countries and the global community would suffer severe consequences.
Ultimately, the most critical factor is preventing such a conflict from occurring in the first place, given the catastrophic potential outcomes.