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What is the effect of demonetization of 500 and 1000 rupees note?

The demonetization of the 500 and 1000 rupee notes announced by the Government of India on November 8, 2016, had significant and far-reaching effects on the Indian economy and society. Here are some of the key impacts:

Short-Term Impacts

  • Cash Shortages and Liquidity Crisis: The sudden withdrawal of these notes, which accounted for approximately 86% of India's currency in circulation, led to severe cash shortages. Long queues formed outside banks and ATMs, and many people faced difficulties in exchanging or depositing their money345.
  • Disruption in Economic Activities: The unorganized sector, including small traders, roadside vendors, and cab drivers, was severely affected due to the immediate liquidity issues. This led to a significant disruption in commodity transactions and general cash market activities25.
  • Impact on Agriculture: The agriculture sector, heavily dependent on cash transactions, was adversely affected. Farmers faced difficulties in purchasing seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides, leading to a plunge in demand and a crash in crop prices3.
  • Transportation Issues: The cash shortage affected truck drivers and conductors, with many trucks stranded on highways. Toll collections on national highways were suspended temporarily due to the refusal of demonetized notes3.

Economic Consequences

  • GDP and Industrial Production: The demonetization led to a reduction in India's GDP growth rate and industrial production. It is estimated that 1.5 million jobs were lost as a result of this policy35.
  • Black Money and Counterfeit Currency: Despite the intention to curb black money and counterfeit currency, nearly 99.3% of the demonetized notes were deposited back into banks, indicating that the move was largely ineffective in removing black money from the economy35.
  • Economic Slowdown: The demonetization contributed to an economic slowdown in India, which was evident even in 2019, several years after the policy was implemented3.

Social Impacts

  • Public Hardship: The poor and lower middle classes were disproportionately affected, lacking the resources to adapt to the sudden change. Many people died while waiting in queues to exchange their money35.
  • Protests and Criticism: The move was met with widespread criticism, protests, and litigation. It was criticized for being poorly planned and unfair, leading to significant public hardship35.

Long-Term Impacts

  • Increase in Digital Transactions: While the demonetization did lead to an increase in digital and cashless transactions, this trend was not sustained in the long term. By 2021, cash circulation in India had actually increased significantly since the demonetization3.
  • Financial Inclusion: There was an increase in the number of bank accounts and financial transactions, particularly among the previously unbanked population. However, this did not necessarily translate into long-term financial literacy or sustained financial inclusion1.

Overall, the demonetization of the 500 and 1000 rupee notes had far-reaching and mostly negative impacts on the Indian economy and society, with significant short-term disruptions and long-term economic and social consequences.

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