Israel vs Iran: who would win?

In a hypothetical conflict between Israel and Iran, the outcome is complex and depends on various factors, including military capabilities, technological advantages, and strategic considerations. Here are some key points to consider:

Military Capabilities and Technology

Israel has a significant technological and operational advantage, particularly in the air. Israel's air force is equipped with advanced U.S.-supplied aircraft, including F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighters, which give Israel air superiority24.

Israel's defense systems, including the Iron Dome, David's Sling, and the Arrow missile defense systems, are highly effective against missile and rocket attacks. These systems have been successful in intercepting a large number of Iranian missiles and drones, although recent attacks have shown that with the right tactics and intensity, Iran can still breach these defenses to some extent134.

Nuclear Deterrent

Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, estimated to be around 90 nuclear warheads, which serves as a significant deterrent. Iran, on the other hand, does not currently possess nuclear weapons, although there are concerns about its nuclear program12.

Manpower and Ground Forces

Iran has a numerical advantage in terms of manpower, with approximately 610,000 active troops, 350,000 reservists, and 220,000 paramilitary personnel, compared to Israel's 170,000 active duty personnel and 465,000 reservists24.

However, Israel's mandatory military service ensures that a large portion of its population is trained and ready to fight, which can offset some of the numerical disadvantage.

Missile and Drone Capabilities

Iran has invested heavily in developing domestic weapons programs, resulting in a large and diverse arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as effective drones. These can pose a serious threat to Israel, especially if used in large numbers. However, the reliability of these weapons has been a major factor, with around half of the Iranian missiles failing on launch or in flight during recent attacks123.

Proxies and Asymmetric Warfare

Iran's main advantage lies in its ability to use proxies such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. This allows Iran to attack Israel indirectly and spread the conflict across multiple fronts2.

Strategic Considerations

Given the geographical distance between Israel and Iran, any conflict is likely to be fought primarily through air and missile attacks rather than a ground invasion. Israel's advanced air force and missile defense systems give it a strong advantage in this scenario24.

Conclusion

While Iran has numerical advantages in manpower and a large arsenal of missiles and drones, Israel's technological superiority, air power, and nuclear deterrent give it a significant military edge. Israel's defense systems have proven effective against Iranian attacks, although Iran's ability to adapt and use proxies adds complexity to the conflict.

In a full-scale war, Israel is likely to inflict more damage on Iran due to its precision capabilities and powerful allies, including the United States. However, Iran's asymmetric capabilities and use of proxies mean that it could continue to pose a significant threat to Israel without necessarily winning a conventional war124.