Is civil war likely after the US presidential election?
While there are significant concerns and fears among Americans about the possibility of violence or civil unrest following the US presidential election, the likelihood of a full-scale civil war is considered low by many experts. Here are some key points from the sources:
Public Fears and Divisions
- A recent poll by YouGov showed that 27% of registered U.S. voters believe violence is very or somewhat likely to erupt after the election, reflecting deep divisions within the country123.
Potential for Violence
- Experts warn that widespread violence, particularly if the election is closely contested or if one side refuses to accept the results, is a plausible scenario. This could involve armed attempts to stop the counting of electoral votes, riots, and targeted violence against specific groups or individuals23.
Expert Opinions
- Michael Haas and Barbara Walter, experts on civil war and political instability, outline scenarios where violence could escalate, but they also note that a full-scale civil war would require significant leadership, funding, and a singularly explosive disagreement, which is seen as unlikely in the near term2.
Current Tensions
- The ongoing polarization and mistrust in the political system, as well as past incidents like the January 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill, contribute to the tense atmosphere. However, most experts believe that while violence is possible, it would not necessarily escalate into a full-blown civil war123.
Preventive Measures
- Some experts suggest that reforms such as open primaries could help mitigate the extreme polarization and reduce the likelihood of violent conflicts by leading to more centrist and reasonable political leadership3.
In summary, while there is a significant fear of violence and civil unrest among Americans, and some experts outline worst-case scenarios, the consensus is that a full-scale civil war is highly unlikely in the immediate future. However, the potential for widespread violence and social unrest remains a serious concern.