If a war breaks out between India and Pakistan who would win?

In a hypothetical war between India and Pakistan, several factors suggest that India would have a significant advantage over Pakistan. Here are some key points to consider:

Military Budget and Personnel

India's military budget is substantially larger than Pakistan's. India allocates approximately $74 billion to its defense, while Pakistan spends around $6.35 billion135. India also has a much larger active personnel force, with 1,237,117 active soldiers compared to Pakistan's 654,000135.

Army Strength and Capabilities

India's army is equipped with more tanks (4,614 vs 3,742), vehicles (151,248 vs 50,523), and artillery pieces (3,243 towed artillery vs 3,238)13. India also has a greater number of Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and self-propelled guns (SPGs)1.

Air Force Power

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is ranked as the 6th global air power and has a more diverse and advanced fleet, including Sukhoi Su-30MKI, Rafale, and Tejas. In contrast, Pakistan's Air Force operates primarily with F-16 Fighting Falcons and JF-17 Thunders. India has 814 combat-capable aircraft, while Pakistan has 42513.

Naval Dominance

India's navy is significantly stronger, with one aircraft carrier, 16 submarines, 13 frigates, and 14 destroyers, among other vessels. Pakistan's navy is smaller, with 8 submarines, 9 frigates, and fewer combat-capable aircraft3.

Nuclear Capabilities

Both countries possess nuclear weapons, but India's missile technology is more advanced, with longer-range systems like the Agni-5 and sea-based K-4 missiles. Pakistan focuses on shorter-range tactical nuclear weapons like the Nasr missile1.

Strategic Depth and International Support

India's military has greater strategic depth and international cooperation, including joint exercises with global powers. Pakistan, while having some international support, particularly from China, faces significant diplomatic isolation due to its sponsorship of terrorism2.

Outcome of a Conflict

In a conventional war, India's superior numbers, advanced technology, and broader strategic capabilities would likely give it the upper hand. Pakistan's defensive advantages and tactical acumen might allow it to resist initially, but India's overwhelming military resources would eventually prevail123.

However, if Pakistan were to resort to large-scale use of nuclear weapons, the conflict could escalate dramatically, potentially drawing in other global powers and changing the dynamics entirely24.

In summary, based on conventional military strength and capabilities, India would likely emerge victorious in a war against Pakistan, absent the use of nuclear weapons by Pakistan.