How did Donald trump win the elections?
Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election can be attributed to several key factors and strategic decisions:
Expanded Coalition and Demographic Gains
Trump successfully expanded his coalition by making significant gains among various demographic groups. He improved his support among Latino voters, winning an unprecedented 46% of the Latino vote, particularly among Latino men, where he won by double-digit margins34. He also increased his share of the Black male vote from 12% in 2020 to 20% in 2024, and performed better among Asian American voters124.
Performance Among Young Voters
Trump enhanced his support among young adults, especially young men. He increased his vote share among this group from 35% in 2020 to 42% in 2024, largely through his presence on popular podcasts like Joe Rogan's, which helped him reach this otherwise hard-to-reach demographic13.
Strong Base Support and Independent Voters
Trump maintained a strong bond with his Republican base, receiving 94% of the Republican vote. He also reduced the Democratic edge among Independent voters from nine points in 2020 to five points in 20241.
Tactical Campaign Choices
The Trump campaign chose not to invest heavily in traditional get-out-the-vote organizing, instead outsourcing this effort to supporting organizations. This strategy, combined with Trump's personal bond with his supporters, proved effective in mobilizing his base1.
Economic and Policy Issues
Trump's campaign capitalized on public dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's handling of the economy and immigration. These issues resonated particularly with voters in areas with large Hispanic and Asian American populations2.
Swing State Victories
Trump swept all seven key battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), often by larger margins than Joe Biden had in 2020. This included significant gains in Hispanic-heavy areas like Arizona and Florida's Miami-Dade County25.
Gender and Educational Divides
Trump won men in every age group, while Kamala Harris won a majority of women but not enough to offset Trump’s gains. There was a pronounced gender divide by education among white voters, with Trump winning wider margins among non-college-educated white men and women3.
Electoral and Popular Vote
Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote, becoming the first Republican to win the popular vote since 1988. He secured 312 electoral votes and approximately 50% of the popular vote, with a margin of about 1.62% over Harris25.
Overall, Trump's victory was driven by a combination of strong base support, improved performance across various demographic groups, effective campaign tactics, and capitalizing on key policy issues.