How did Donald Trump win despite projections that he would fail?

Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election, despite being projected as unlikely by most media forecasts, can be attributed to several key factors:

Electoral College Strategy

Trump focused on winning the Electoral College rather than the popular vote. He successfully targeted and won several crucial swing states, including Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and the traditionally Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states, particularly the Rust Belt trio, were pivotal as they provided the necessary electoral votes for Trump to secure the presidency13.

Campaign Messaging and Appeal

Trump's campaign resonated strongly with white working-class voters, a demographic that had been shifting away from the Democratic Party. His populist and nationalist message, encapsulated in the slogan "Make America Great Again," appealed to voters who felt disenfranchised and overlooked by the political establishment. This message also drew in some voters who had supported Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries but ultimately voted for Trump in the general election13.

Media Coverage and Free Publicity

Trump's campaign benefited from extensive free media coverage due to his controversial and inflammatory comments. This constant media attention helped keep him in the public eye and often overshadowed his opponents, despite the negative nature of some of the coverage3.

Clinton's Campaign Shortcomings

Hillary Clinton's campaign faced several challenges, including controversies over her use of a private email server and perceptions of her as untrustworthy. Additionally, Clinton's campaign was criticized for not adequately addressing the concerns of voters in key states, particularly in the Rust Belt region. Her lack of campaigning in these areas may have contributed to Trump's narrow victories there13.

Faithless Electors and Electoral College Dynamics

Although Clinton received nearly 3 million more popular votes, the Electoral College system ultimately decided the election. There were also seven faithless electors, but this did not alter the outcome significantly. Trump secured 304 electoral votes to Clinton's 227, which was enough to win the presidency13.

Voter Turnout and Demographics

Trump performed well in battleground states and managed to flip several states that had voted Democratic in the previous election. His support among non-college-educated white voters was particularly strong, and he also made inroads in some traditionally Democratic-leaning areas13.

These factors combined to allow Trump to win the presidency despite initial projections that favored Clinton.