How did Donald trump win?
Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election can be attributed to several key factors:
Strategic Campaign Decisions
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Building a Multi-Ethnic Coalition: Trump successfully expanded his support among white working-class voters to create a broader coalition, including gains among Latino and African American men. He increased his share of the Black male vote from 12% to 20% and carried Hispanic men by nine points1.
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Engagement with Young Adults: Trump improved his performance among young adults, particularly young men, by leveraging platforms like podcasts, such as Joe Rogan's1.
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Tactical Choices: The Trump campaign focused on negative advertising, particularly targeting Kamala Harris' stance on transgender issues, which helped weaken her campaign in key regions1.
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Abortion Stance: Trump modulated his stance on abortion by advocating for state-level decisions, which did not significantly alienate his evangelical base1.
Political Context
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Referendum on the Biden-Harris Administration: The election was largely framed as a referendum on the previous administration's performance, particularly on issues like inflation and immigration. This framing benefited Trump as voters expressed dissatisfaction with the incumbent party23.
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Unifying the Republican Party: Despite initial divisions, Trump managed to unite the Republican Party behind him, securing 94% of the Republican vote and reducing the Democratic edge among Independents1.
Electoral Performance
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Swing States: Trump swept all the swing states, improving his margins compared to previous elections3.
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Popular and Electoral Vote: Trump won both the popular vote and the Electoral College, though his margin of victory was modest by historical standards3.
Overall, Trump's victory was a result of strategic campaign decisions, favorable political context, and effective messaging that resonated with key voter groups.