Does Trump have a chance at winning presidency?

As of the latest forecasts, Donald Trump does have a chance at winning the presidency in the 2024 election. According to FiveThirtyEight's final forecast, the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is extremely close, with both candidates having a significant chance of winning. The forecast indicates that Trump has a substantial probability of winning the Electoral College, though the race is considered a toss-up1.

Here are some key points from the forecast:

• Electoral College Probability: Trump has a 47% chance of winning the Electoral College with fewer than 350 electoral votes, while Harris has a 41% chance under the same conditions1.
• National Popular Vote: Harris is favored to win the national popular vote, with a 71% chance compared to Trump's 29%1.
• Toss-Up Nature: The election is considered very close, with all swing states within the margin of polling error, meaning that any state could potentially go to either candidate1.

Overall, while the race is tight and unpredictable, Trump certainly has a viable path to winning the presidency. However, the outcome depends heavily on factors like voter turnout, polling accuracy, and performance in key battleground states.