After Brexit, many voters expressed remorse to find that some of the promises wouldn't be kept. How might this compare to Trump's campaign promises?

The phenomenon of voters expressing remorse after Brexit due to unfulfilled promises shares some similarities with the experience of voters in the United States regarding Donald Trump's campaign promises. Here are some key comparisons and contrasts:

Unfulfilled Promises

• In the case of Brexit, many Leave voters regretted their decision as several key promises made by the Leave campaign, such as the £350 million weekly NHS funding and easy post-Brexit trade arrangements, were not fulfilled. The lack of a clear, viable exit plan and the misrepresentation of the simplicity of leaving the EU contributed significantly to this regret134.
• Similarly, Donald Trump made numerous campaign promises, but he did not fulfill many of them. According to analyses, Trump kept about 25% of his promises, compromised on about 23%, and broke around 54% of them. Promises such as repealing and replacing Obamacare, bringing back coal jobs, and building a wall with Mexico paying for it were either not achieved or only partially fulfilled25.

Voter Deception

• The Brexit referendum is often criticized for the deception involved in the Leave campaign's promises. Voters were misled into believing that leaving the EU would be a straightforward process with clear benefits, which was not the case. The lack of detailed plans and the exaggeration of potential benefits led to widespread regret among voters4.
• Trump's campaign also involved promises that were either exaggerated or not feasible. For example, his promises to "drain the swamp" in Washington and protect Americans with pre-existing conditions were not fulfilled. Additionally, his administration's failure to deliver on several economic promises, such as significantly boosting manufacturing jobs, contributed to voter disillusionment25.

Impact on Public Perception

• The Brexit referendum's outcome and the subsequent realization that many promises were unachievable led to a significant shift in public opinion. Many Leave voters expressed regret, and there was a noticeable increase in the sense of duty to vote among non-voters, particularly among younger demographics13.
• Trump's unfulfilled promises also affected public perception, with many voters feeling that he had not delivered on his campaign rhetoric. This led to a mixed assessment of his presidency, with some supporters remaining loyal while others felt betrayed by the gap between his promises and actual achievements25.

Policy and Process Failures

• The Brexit process was marred by policy and process failures, including the lack of a viable exit plan and the failure to secure agreements with other EU member countries. This led to a prolonged and complex negotiation process that further eroded public trust4.
• Trump's administration faced similar criticisms regarding policy and process failures. For instance, the failure to repeal Obamacare and the lack of anti-corruption legislation despite his "drain the swamp" promise highlighted significant gaps between campaign rhetoric and actual policy implementation2.

In summary, both the Brexit referendum and Trump's presidency were marked by significant gaps between campaign promises and actual outcomes, leading to voter regret and disillusionment. However, the nature and extent of these promises and their impact on public perception and policy processes have distinct characteristics unique to each context.